The Lincoln Project: This Poll Matters


This Poll Matters

Have the past few days darkened your view of American politics? If they have, I don’t blame you. 

Our former president is fundraising off his mugshot (to the tune of millions of dollars already). And any of his primary opponents who dared to critique him were almost booed off the debate stage. 

The GOP has completely avowed itself to the cult of Trumpism. Their clear and fervent belief in his innocence is both shameful and completely unsurprising. 

But we have a clear road map to defeat them.

This poll confirms some of our own internal research. And it offers the best view of how we can approach the general election campaign against Trump and the MAGA candidates that support him.

Here are the takeaways I want you to know: 

  • 60% of Americans want a trial for Trump before the 2024 election.
  • Only 26% of Americans think Trump isn’t guilty.
  • The majority of Americans want to see Trump in prison if he’s proven guilty. 

We’ve always known that Trump is going to barnstorm the primaries. But the general electorate wants accountability for Trump, and they’re ready for a case to be made against him in the court of law. 

That means there’s a case to be made against him in the court of public opinion, too. 

We’re never going to win over the quarter of Americans who are completely convinced of his innocence. They will always live in another political universe. But the majority of voters are ready to reject Trump for his lawlessness. 

We can’t rest on that fact. We need to act. 

This election is going to come down to tens of thousands of votes across a couple swing states. And we’re going to win it by going after the majority of the electorate that is ready to reject the cult of Trumpism. 

These are the Bannon-line voters we talk about. These are the voters that we reached in 2020 and 2022. Make no mistake, winning them is the reason why we’ll defend democracy again in 2024. 

The past few days should darken your view of radical GOP primary voters. But they shouldn’t cloud the optimism for the pro-democracy coalition we’re going to build for Election Day. Can you pitch in today to help support that work? 

-Reed



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